Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch Crew Dragon 'Grace' into Earth orbit on October 1?

🤖 Context

YES if the Crew Dragon spacecraft 'Grace' lifts off from SLC‑40 at Cape Canaveral on a SpaceX Falcon 9 and achieves Earth orbit during the launch attempt that begins at or after 11:10 AM EDT on October 1, 2026. Evidence must come from an official NASA or SpaceX mission status or press release, from public orbital‑tracking data (e.g., NORAD/Celestrak), or from independent mainstream reporting. If no liftoff occurs on that scheduled attempt (for example, a scrub before launch), this market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 46%, based on 187 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

46%

Predictions made

187

Credits staked

5,003

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 20, 2026

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

spaceflightnow.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 46% and NO 54%, based on 187 predictions and 5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against spaceflightnow.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch Crew Dragon 'Grace' into Earth orbit on October 1?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch Crew Dragon 'Grace' into Earth orbit on October 1?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.