Will a magnitude 4.8 or greater earthquake hit Japan?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with origin time on or after 00:00 on September 16, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on September 19, 2026 whose USGS-reported magnitude is at least 4.8 and whose location is within Japan. Otherwise NO. The USGS earthquake catalog is the primary source, but corroborating reports from reputable national seismological agencies or major news outlets are acceptable.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 32%, based on 88 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

32%

Predictions made

88

Credits staked

2,887

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 15, 2026

Closes

Sep 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 19, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 19, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 32% and NO 68%, based on 88 predictions and 2.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will a magnitude 4.8 or greater earthquake hit Japan?” real-money betting?

No. “Will a magnitude 4.8 or greater earthquake hit Japan?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.