Will the Mediterranean low near Tripoli become a subtropical or tropical cyclone and make landfall on Crete or mainland Greece?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 23:59:59 EEST on September 17, 2026, at least one credible meteorological authority or a major international wire service (for example: Hellenic National Meteorological Service, EUMETSAT, Reuters, or AP) reports that the same weather system described in the linked article (the low northeast of Tripoli) developed into a distinct Mediterranean subtropical or tropical cyclone and that the cyclone's centre made landfall on Crete or on mainland Greece. If agencies or wire services only report coastal impacts, heavy rain, or strong winds without an explicit report that the cyclone's centre crossed the coastline of Crete or mainland Greece by that deadline, the market resolves NO.

Key facts

Crowd probability

20%

Predictions made

205

Credits staked

5,233

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 15, 2026

Closes

Sep 15, 2026

Resolved

Sep 23, 2026

Outcome

No