Will a Vega‑C rocket launch from Kourou carrying Sentinel‑3C and FLEX on September 14?

78%
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87%
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YES if, no later than 23:59 JST on September 18, 2026, an operational advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the China Meteorological Administration, or the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center explicitly states Typhoon Saudel’s centre made landfall on one or more of the Ryukyu Islands or on the coastline of mainland China, or if at least two independent major news organisations explicitly report the storm’s centre made landfall in one of those areas by that deadline. "Landfall" requires explicit language that the cyclone’s centre crossed the named coastline. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against theweathernetwork.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 87%, based on 92 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and existing forecasts, it's likely that Typhoon Saudel will make landfall. The agencies have a track record of warnings well ahead of time, and we’re only a few days out.

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74%
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