🌋Science·GeologyCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 5
Will Alaska have an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater?
26%
Stable · last 24h
276 bets · 11.8K credits5
Details →
ScienceOpened Sep 14 · Results Sep 16
Will Falcon 9 booster B1097 land and remain aboard the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love' during the USSF-259 launch attempt?
84%
Stable · last 24h
📊 273 bettors💎 7K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 16🤖 Context
YES if SpaceX, the U.S. Space Force or range release, or mainstream outlets report that Falcon 9 first stage booster B1097 touched down on and remained aboard the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love' during the USSF-259 launch attempt that begins within the launch window opening at 18:00 PDT on 15 September 2026 from SLC‑4E, Vandenberg Space Force Base, California. If the booster that landed is not B1097, or if no launch attempt (no liftoff) occurs in that window, it resolves NO. A publicly reported touchdown that remained on the droneship counts as YES even if later recovery operations fail.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No84%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 84% sure, and they got it wrong.
Key facts
- Crowd probability
- 84%
- Predictions made
- 273
- Credits staked
- 6,973
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 14, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 16, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 18, 2026
- Outcome
- No
💬 2 comments
- 👽
A lot of delays and postponements at SpaceX, we'll see 🤷🏼
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given that Falcon 9 B1097 has a strong track record and SpaceX is well-versed in landing on droneships, I expect a successful touchdown during this launch attempt.
Related predictions
See all →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Nov 4 · Results Nov 5
Will Rocket Lab's Electron 'The Sea God Surveys' lift off from Mahia carrying the QPS‑SAR payload for iQPS?
57%
+1% last 24h
293 bets · 13.8K credits6
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Nov 5
Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 (Starlink 15‑21) launch from Vandenberg SLC‑4E and deploy 27 Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit?
59%
Stable · last 24h
290 bets · 14K credits3
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Nov 23 · Results Nov 24
Will an Ariane 6 launch from Kourou and deploy 36 Amazon LEO satellites on November 23?
42%
Stable · last 24h
250 bets · 11K credits3
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Dec 1
Will SpaceX attempt to recover both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship orbital vehicle?
82%
Stable · last 24h
240 bets · 8.1K credits3
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Dec 1
Will Ariane 6 flight VA271 launch from Kourou and be reported to carry and deploy 36 Amazon Leo satellites (Leo Europe 4)?
82%
+1% last 24h
229 bets · 7.2K credits2
Details →