Will Sophie Adenot have landed or splashed down and been reported recovered from her current ISS mission?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 30, 2026, an authoritative public source (preferably an official NASA, CNES, or ESA press release, or the SpaceX mission-status page) or at least two independent major news agencies (for example Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC) explicitly report that Sophie Adenot has landed or splashed down and been recovered from her ISS mission, naming her as recovered. Otherwise NO. If reports conflict, priority goes to an official agency or operator statement that names Sophie Adenot and says she has "landed", "been recovered" or "returned". Announcements of a planned return, a stated landing time without confirmation of recovery, or confirmations published after the resolution instant do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 84%, based on 95 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

84%

Predictions made

95

Credits staked

2,612

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 13, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 84% and NO 16%, based on 95 predictions and 2.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot have landed or splashed down and been reported recovered from her current ISS mission?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot have landed or splashed down and been reported recovered from her current ISS mission?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.