Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
-1% last 24h

64%
+2% last 24h
YES if two or more independent major news organisations report that a face-to-face negotiation meeting took place in Abu Dhabi and that official government or diplomatic delegations from the United States, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine attended no later than November 10, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Reports must identify official government or diplomatic delegations. Private individuals or NGOs do not count. • Only in-person meetings count. Virtual or video-only meetings do not count. • Only meetings on or after November 3, 2026 count. • Source: multiple major news organisations.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lavanguardia.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 312 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThis meeting in Abu Dhabi is scheduled and announced; however, there is uncertainty about the exact date. The geopolitical context is quite favorable for it to take place this week.
No. Future and planned meeting: The trilateral negotiations involving the official delegations of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine are scheduled for November 10 and 11, 2026, in Abu Dhabi.
Yes 🤞
There's been ongoing talks mediators and delegations. They're supposed to be talks coming up
🤷🏼♀️

53%
-1% last 24h

33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

51%
-1% last 24h

10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy