Will any country carry out a direct military strike on Iranian territory, including its islands?

🤖 Context

YES if, between November 3, 2026 and no later than November 17, 2026, two or more independent major news organisations report that a named sovereign state carried out a direct military strike on Iranian territory or islands and explicitly attribute the action to that state, or if that named state officially acknowledges or claims the strike. Otherwise NO. • Only events on or after November 3, 2026 count. • Counts: direct air, missile, naval, or ground strikes on Iranian territory or islands that are publicly attributed to a named sovereign state. • Reports attributing attacks only to non-state actors do not count unless two or more outlets explicitly attribute them to a state. • Source: major international news organisations and official statements by the named state.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lavanguardia.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 939 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

33%

Predictions made

939

Credits staked

28,280

Comments

10

Opened

Nov 3, 2026

Closes

Nov 17, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 18, 2026

Resolution source

lavanguardia.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 17, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 33% and NO 67%, based on 939 predictions and 28.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against lavanguardia.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any country carry out a direct military strike on Iranian territory, including its islands?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any country carry out a direct military strike on Iranian territory, including its islands?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.