Mexico
Live prediction markets about Mexico. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
62%
crowd accuracy
248/400
right calls
68
open questions
Biggest miss
The crowd was 93% sure, and they got it wrong.
Hot right now
The crowd's YES odds since Sep 15
61%
Yes
Open questions68
- Will Morena publish a single definitive national list naming its chosen coordinators/candidates for all 300 federal districts?Closes Jan 1 · Results Jan 2402 predictions38%Yes
- Will federal charges be filed against Iván "N" (alias "El Cromo") for extortion, drug dealing, murder, or kidnapping?Closes Jan 1402 predictions17%Yes
- Will the 2027 federal budget allocate at least 1,105,963.2 million pesos to Health?Closes Nov 9 · Results Dec 2401 predictions76%Yes
- Will at least one of the 12,500 new 'consultorios gratuitos' start operating?Closes Jan 1 · Results Feb 1401 predictions60%Yes
- Will Tropical Storm Vance make landfall in Mexico?Closes Oct 3131 predictions24%Yes
- Will a formal criminal investigation be opened into Guadalupe Taddei?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 29 predictions42%Yes
- Will Claudia Sheinbaum meet on the record with Tatiana Clouthier in person or in a publicly acknowledged call?Closes Nov 15 · Results Nov 166 predictions27%Yes
- Will detailed vote counts from the Oct 14 IMSS salary consultation be published?Closes Nov 35 predictions57%Yes
- Will IMSS workers hold a public march in Mexico City on October 30?Closes Oct 30 · Results Oct 314 predictions84%Yes
- Will Morena publicly name at least one new state coordinator by direct designation?Closes Dec 14 predictions70%Yes
- Will IMSS workers stage blockades or mobilizations that close roads in at least three different Mexican states or Mexico City on October 30?Closes Oct 30 · Results Oct 313 predictions72%Yes
- Will Ciudad Juárez set clocks back one hour on November 1?Closes Nov 13 predictions78%Yes
How it turned out400
- Will anyone be publicly named 'coordinador estatal' (state coordinator) to run Morena's campaign for any 2027 governorship?No
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 22 - Will Mexico City's daily high reach at least 24 °C on August 21?Yes
The crowd was 50% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 22 - Will any announced in-person 'Examen de Control Presencial' session in León, Oaxaca, Tijuana, or Mexico City be blocked by a federal court order?No
The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 21 - Will Mexico City's daily high reach at least 23 °C on August 20?Yes
The crowd was 59% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 21 - Will the PlayStation Store charge accounts registered in Mexico in Mexican pesos (MXN) on or after August 20, 2026?Yes
The crowd was 83% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 20 - Will the in-person 'examen de control' take place in all four scheduled cities for the 2026 admissions contest?Yes
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 20 - Will the Comisión Permanente meet in a formal session on August 19?Yes
The crowd was 56% sure, and they nailed it.
Aug 19 - Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation or eruption with ash?No
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 19 - Will Popocatépetl ash fall in the Mexico City metro on August 18?No
The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 19 - Will tropical cyclone Hernan make landfall anywhere in Mexico, including islands and the Baja California Peninsula?No
The crowd was 65% sure, and they got it wrong.
Aug 18