Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation or eruption with ash?

🤖 Context

This market resolves YES if, between 3:00 PM on August 17, 2026 and 3:00 PM on August 18, 2026, Mexico City time, there is at least one public report that explicitly states Popocatépetl produced an exhalation or eruption that included volcanic ash. Acceptable sources are official bulletins from CENAPRED or the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional / CONAGUA, or at least two independent Mexican mainstream news outlets such as El Universal, Milenio, Reforma, Excelsior, or La Jornada. Reports that mention only steam or gas without saying ash do not count, and satellite detections count only if an official bulletin attributes them to Popocatépetl or at least two independent news outlets explicitly report ash.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

60%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

88

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 17, 2026

Closes

Aug 17, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 18, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 60% and NO 40%, based on 8 predictions and 88 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation or eruption with ash?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl produce at least one exhalation or eruption with ash?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.