Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

14%
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50%
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YES if the Comisión Permanente of the H. Congreso de la Unión convenes and holds a formal session on August 19, 2026 (Mexico City local date), evidenced by either an official record of proceedings published by the Cámara de Diputados (press release, minutes, or Diario de los Debates) stating the session occurred on that date, or credible reporting by at least two independent Mexican news organizations stating the Comisión Permanente met in a formal session that day. If the meeting was cancelled or postponed to another date, or if only informal rehearsals or technical tests occurred with no recorded proceedings and no independent reporting, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against facebook.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 8 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's unlikely the Comisión Permanente will convene tomorrow. With only 40 hours left, there's no solid sign of a formal session being announced, making a last-minute cancellation very possible.

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15%
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57%
Stable · last 24h

68%
Stable · last 24h

59%
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67%
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