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ScienceOpened Aug 14 · Results Aug 18
Will tropical cyclone Hernan make landfall anywhere in Mexico, including islands and the Baja California Peninsula?
65%
Stable · last 24h
📊 429 bettors💎 9K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 18🤖 Context
The rule required an official report that the centre of tropical cyclone Hernan crossed the Mexican coastline by 00:00 on August 18, 2026, either from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA) or, if CONAGUA did not say so, from at least two independent reputable news outlets. In fact Hernan formed west of the Baja California peninsula on 13 August 2026, stayed far offshore and weakened to a remnant post-tropical low on 15 August 2026 while still well west of Mexico, and Mexican authorities reported it was thousands of kilometres offshore. Because neither CONAGUA nor multiple reputable reports stated the storm's centre made landfall by the cutoff, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No65%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent meteorological reports and news outlets in the supplied evidence show that Tropical Storm Hernan formed well west of the Baja California peninsula (Aug 13, 2026), remained far offshore, and never produced coastal watches/warnings for Mexico. Pacific Disaster Center (citing NHC advisory #12) and track data (Weather Underground) state Hernan weakened to a remnant/post‑tropical low while located far west of Mexico (last advisory) on 2026-08-15. Mexican sources (Conagua as cited in N+ / Informador / Radio Fórmula) likewise reported the system was thousands of kilometres offshore and did not represent a danger to Mexico. None of the supplied sources report Hernan’s center crossing the Mexican coastline on or before 2026-08-18T00:00:00-06:00. These corroborating, dated reports constitute positive evidence that Hernan’s center did not make landfall in Mexican territory by the cutoff.
Source: pdc.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 65%
- Predictions made
- 429
- Credits staked
- 8,969
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Aug 14, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 18, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 18, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- pdc.org, wunderground.com, watchers.news
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🪙
Apparently it won't make landfall according to meteorological studies.
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 1 💎
Given the timing and the current approach of Hernan, I expect it to make landfall in Mexico. The SMN's tracking suggests it's heading that way, and there's a good chance of confirmation by the deadline.
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