Will tropical cyclone Hernan make landfall anywhere in Mexico, including islands and the Baja California Peninsula?

🤖 Context

YES if the official centre of the tropical cyclone originally designated Hernan is reported to have crossed the coastline onto land within internationally recognized territory of Mexico, including Mexican islands and the Baja California Peninsula, no later than 00:00 on August 18, 2026, according to the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA), or if SMN does not make an explicit statement, by a clear consensus of two or more independent reputable news reports that explicitly state the cyclone's centre made landfall. Reports that only describe coastal impacts, storm surge, or outer bands without an explicit statement that the cyclone's centre was on land do not count. If the same cyclonic circulation that SMN identified as Hernan is later renamed and that circulation then makes landfall, that landfall still counts as YES, otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 54%, based on 2 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

54%

Predictions made

2

Credits staked

26

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 18, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 54% and NO 46%, based on 2 predictions and 26 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical cyclone Hernan make landfall anywhere in Mexico, including islands and the Baja California Peninsula?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical cyclone Hernan make landfall anywhere in Mexico, including islands and the Baja California Peninsula?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.