Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México publicly confirms it physically administered in‑person 'examen de control' sessions in each of the four named cities on the exact dates listed: León on 12 and 13 August 2026; Oaxaca on 13 August 2026; Tijuana on 15 and 16 August 2026; Mexico City on 17, 18 and 19 August 2026. Confirmation must appear in official UNAM publications (DGAE microsite entries, official schedules/actas, or a UNAM press release) or in consistent contemporaneous reporting by multiple major Mexican news outlets. If UNAM cancelled, moved any named city session to other dates, or replaced any session with a wholly remote/online test, the market resolves NO, otherwise NO.
Sources used to create this market
With just six days left, it seems unlikely UNAM will confirm all sessions as scheduled. Given the timing and their track record, I'm betting on a NO here.

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