Follow the news · October 16, 2026
How the markets that settled that day resolved: the odds, the verdict, and what the crowd got right or wrong.
Settled
151
Crowd right
82%
Upsets
5
How we count
The crowd = real players' bets only (bots excluded); questions no player bet on aren't scored. Crowd right: the side above 50% won (50/50 calls excluded). Upset: the crowd was at least 75% sure and wrong. Full accuracy report
All results151 results
- Will OpenAI list an official US‑dollar retail price of $300–$400 for its AI smart speaker?No
crowd 58% no · 227 players
- Will Crew‑13's Crew Dragon 'Grace' launch from SLC‑40 and dock at the ISS?Yes
crowd 85% yes · 226 players
- Nations League: Will a formal disciplinary investigation be opened into the alleged spitting by an Israeli player?Yes
crowd 84% yes · 221 players
- Will Olivia Rodrigo or her rep publicly address vendor payment allegations from Daisy Chain Fields?No
crowd 80% no · 212 players
- Will Le secret des secrets be in Edistat's top 5 best‑selling books in France?No
crowd 76% no · 193 players
- Koh-Lanta: Will Yassin still be competing in Koh-Lanta All Stars on October 15?Yes
crowd 82% yes · 179 players
- Will a meeting between the Ministry and Union étudiante, Renouveau Lycéen, and Lycéens! be publicly confirmed?No
crowd 51% yes · 173 players
- Koh-Lanta: Will Maxime still be competing on October 15?Yes
crowd 86% yes · 171 players
- Will Enrique Inzunza Cázarez stop being a member of Morena?No
crowd 92% no · 166 players
- Will Panos Panay speak in the 'What Comes After the Smartphone?' session on October 15?Yes
crowd 98% yes · 166 players
- Will Falcon 9 booster B1081 land on the droneship "Of Course I Still Love You" on October 15?Yes
crowd 93% yes · 166 players
- Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be #2 on Netflix globally for the week labeled October 13, 2026?Yes
crowd 81% yes · 164 players
- Will the DeepSeek app be banned on all federal government mobile devices?No
crowd 98% no · 157 players
- Will OpenAI (Vercel) have over 26.0% of AI Gateway requests across the top labs?No
crowd 78% no · 150 players
- Will Le casse du siècle rank higher than Retour à Folegandros on Edistat's best-sellers list on October 15?Yes
crowd 53% yes · 147 players
- Will the Falcon 9 for USSF-481 lift off from SLC-4E at Vandenberg on October 15?Yes
crowd 91% yes · 128 players
- Will José Beaurain be suspended or expelled from the Rassemblement National party or the RN parliamentary group?No
crowd 77% no · 123 players
- Will Lucie Bernardoni perform on stage at the Comédie Bastille on October 15?Yes
crowd 87% yes · 121 players
- Will Nikolas Nartey (VfB Stuttgart) enter the field for Denmark?Yes
crowd 97% yes · 120 players
- Will BSW and the AfD publicly sign a written coalition agreement in Saxony-Anhalt?No
crowd 94% no · 113 players
- Will Republicans be ahead of Democrats on the generic congressional ballot on Oct 15?No
crowd 94% no · 113 players
- Will Karmine Corp replace any of the five players listed in their Worlds 2026 Play‑In roster before the Play‑In match vs Cloud9 on Oct 15?No
crowd 88% no · 109 players
- Will OpenAI be listed as a speaker, panelist, keynote, or workshop leader at TechCrunch Disrupt 2026?Yes
crowd 97% yes · 106 players
- Will scheduled household waste and recycling collections in Birmingham have fully resumed across the whole city?No
crowd 93% no · 102 players
- Will the Pixel 11 Pro’s HiLight let you compose or send messages (SMS, RCS, or Google Messages)?No
crowd 71% no · 89 players
- Will Panos Panay deliver 'What Comes After the Smartphone?' on October 15?Yes
crowd 96% yes · 84 players
- Will a new Motorola foldable be marketed as 'Razr Fold'?Yes
crowd 93% yes · 84 players
- La Granja VIP: Will Daniela Alexis 'La Bebeshita' still be competing on October 14?Yes
crowd 98% yes · 77 players
- Will Macklemore announce a U.S. tour date (city and date) for the 'Free Palestine' shows?No
crowd 80% no · 72 players
- Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #1 show on Netflix US?No
crowd 88% no · 70 players
- Will Hurricane Simon be Category 2 or higher when it first makes landfall on the Mexican mainland?No
crowd 96% no · 70 players
- Supervivientes: will they merge Playa Sol and Playa Luna on 15 October?Yes
crowd 94% yes · 68 players
- Will the Falcon 9 USSF‑481 (TH‑2) launch from Vandenberg on October 15 place its primary payload into Earth orbit?No
crowd 62% yes · 68 players
- Will Canada publish a final national AI strategy called or described as 'AI for All'?Yes
crowd 97% yes · 57 players
- Will Tessa Virtue perform a solo contemporary dance at Fall for Dance North in Toronto on October 15?Yes
crowd 97% yes · 55 players
- Will Spain's central government publicly propose relocating 500+ minors who entered Ceuta irregularly in late July 2026 to the peninsula?Yes
crowd 90% yes · 50 players
- Will Michoacán's electoral rules that limit independent candidates stay in effect?Yes
crowd 97% yes · 49 players
- Will Madrid's daily high reach at least 26 °C on October 15?No
crowd 68% yes · 48 players
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic, and Replit each have at least one on-stage session at TechCrunch Disrupt 2026?Yes
crowd 96% yes · 47 players
- Will the SPD or Berlin Greens publicly say they will not enter a governing coalition with Die Linke in Berlin?No
crowd 92% no · 47 players
- Supervivientes All Stars 3: Will Arkano still be competing on 16 October?Yes
crowd 94% yes · 46 players
- Will Great Sitkin drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?No
crowd 84% no · 40 players
- Will the live-action 'The Legend of Zelda' movie get a theatrical release date?Yes
crowd 78% yes · 39 players
- Will Sven Schulze stop serving as CDU state chair in Saxony‑Anhalt?No
crowd 94% no · 38 players
- Supervivientes: Will Asraf Beno still be competing on 14 October?Yes
crowd 93% yes · 38 players
- Supervivientes: Will Víctor Janeiro still be competing in Supervivientes All Stars 3 on October 16?Yes
crowd 86% yes · 36 players
- Will the game "Marvel Tokon" be available to buy or download?Yes
crowd 89% yes · 33 players
- Will Ceuta and Melilla enter a formal EU assessment to become outermost regions?No
crowd 52% yes · 33 players
- Supervivientes All Stars 3: Will Ivana Icardi still be competing on 16 October?Yes
crowd 90% yes · 32 players
- Supervivientes: Will Asraf still be competing on October 15?Yes
crowd 90% yes · 31 players