Will a humanitarian ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian forces begin on October 27?

73%
+3% last 24h

24%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Oct 16YES if no later than October 15, 2026, two or more independent German national news outlets report that Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) have publicly signed and released a written coalition or governing agreement, or if both parties publish the identical signed agreement on their official websites or issue a joint press release confirming a signed agreement. Announced talks, non-binding memoranda of intent, or press statements of intent without a publicly available signed agreement do NOT count. Resolution will be based on reports from German national news outlets or official party press releases from BSW and AfD.
How markets are built and settled24%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: These two articles discuss a strengthened collaboration but not yet a real coalition formed.
Source: mdr.deSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
73%
+3% last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
Stable · last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy