
The crowd was 83% sure, and they got it wrong.
83%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19
How the markets that settled that day resolved: the odds, the verdict, and what the crowd got right or wrong.

The crowd was 83% sure, and they got it wrong.
83%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 87% sure, and they nailed it.
13%
Final odds
Why: The official Top 14 match sheet (LNR) for Vannes vs Toulouse on 2026-09-19 lists Toulouse’s starting XV and named replacements and does not include Tommaso Menoncello. La Dépêche (18 Sep 2026) explicitly reports Menoncello as still absent (“béquille”) and confirms the centre pairing was Chocobares–Gourgues. The all.rugby match page for 19 Sep 2026 likewise publishes the matchday lineup and bench without Menoncello. These independent sources corroborate that he was not listed among the starting XV or the named replacements for that match.
Source: top14.lnr.frResolved Sep 19

The crowd was 77% sure, and they got it wrong.
77%
Final odds
Why: The supplied, independent international news reports (Reuters, AP and The Guardian, among others) show Lithuanian officials did not publicly state they had concluded the drone originated from Russia. Reuters and AP report Lithuanian authorities were still investigating or did not comment on the drone’s origin; the Lithuanian national crisis management centre is quoted as saying the drone most likely entered from Belarus. Reuters does record an Italian defence minister saying the drone 'most probably' came from Russia, but that is not a statement by Lithuanian authorities. None of the provided sources show Lithuanian authorities publicly concluding the drone came from Russia and being reported as such by two independent international outlets — the evidence instead contradicts that claim.
Source: reuters.comResolved Sep 19

The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
66%
Final odds
Why: Multiple independent local news outlets reporting on Jack Doherty’s Sept. 4, 2026 Fort Lauderdale arrest state that he appeared in bond court the following Saturday morning (a magistrate found probable cause and set bond, with an order of no contact). A bond/initial appearance before a magistrate is a first formal court appearance (first appearance/first hearing). Those reports establish that a first formal court appearance in the Fort Lauderdale/Broward domestic-battery matter occurred by Sept 5, 2026, which is before the Sept 18, 2026 cutoff.
Source: cbsnews.comResolved Sep 19

The crowd was 57% sure, and they got it wrong.
57%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
62%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
79%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 54% sure, and they got it wrong.
46%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.
56%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 53% sure, and they got it wrong.
53%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
63%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.
56%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 75% sure, and they got it wrong.
75%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 57% sure, and they nailed it.
43%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 90% sure, and they nailed it.
90%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 53% sure, and they nailed it.
53%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 73% sure, and they got it wrong.
27%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 82% sure, and they nailed it.
18%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 79% sure, and they nailed it.
21%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19

The crowd was 51% sure, and they nailed it.
49%
Final odds
Resolved Sep 19
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