Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

78%
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52%
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YES if SpaceX, the U.S. Coast Guard, or the receiving port authority publicly confirm that the specific Starship hull shown in the cited satellite photos was physically moored or docked at a named seaport/port facility no later than September 15, 2026. Independent corroboration by major news agencies (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, SpaceNews) is also acceptable. Temporary anchoring at sea, beaching, or transfer onto another vessel does not count unless SpaceX or the port authority describes the action as 'delivered to port' and the vehicle is physically moored at a named port facility.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 52%, based on 23 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just a few weeks left, the chances of official confirmation from SpaceX or the Coast Guard seem slim. I doubt this hull will be moored at a named port by the deadline.

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