Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
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72%
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YES if, no later than November 14, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that both Ukrainian and Russian delegations attended and took part in trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi. Otherwise NO. • Only reports published on or after November 8, 2026 count. • Reports must identify representatives from both Ukraine and Russia as participants and state the talks were held in Abu Dhabi. • Source: reports from two or more independent authoritative news outlets. Official statements from the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs or from either delegation are examples of authoritative sources.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 72%, based on 265 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settled
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