Will the next Berlin state government include the AfD as a formal coalition partner and have AfD members in the Senat?

🤖 Context

YES if no later than November 30, 2026, at least two independent national or regional news outlets credibly report that the next government of the State of Berlin (the Senat) is an official coalition that includes the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) as a formal coalition partner and that AfD members have been appointed to the Berlin Senat (i.e., hold ministerial/Senator posts). If a public coalition agreement naming the AfD is reported by at least two independent outlets, count YES even if ministerial appointments are still pending. Otherwise NO. The market resolves based on reporting from at least two independent national or regional news outlets.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 443 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

57%

Predictions made

443

Credits staked

9,992

Comments

2

Opened

Sep 21, 2026

Closes

Nov 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Dec 1, 2026

Resolution source

tagesschau.de

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 57% and NO 43%, based on 443 predictions and 10K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tagesschau.de once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the next Berlin state government include the AfD as a formal coalition partner and have AfD members in the Senat?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the next Berlin state government include the AfD as a formal coalition partner and have AfD members in the Senat?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.