🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 30 · Results Oct 31
Will a public protest or march take place in Paris on October 31?
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Stable · last 24h
902 bets · 34.3K credits16
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PoliticsOpened Sep 12 · Results Oct 1
Will any UN member state formally withdraw from the Rome Statute?
66%
Stable · last 24h
📊 418 bettors💎 15.4K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 1🤖 Context
YES if, no later than September 30, 2026, any UN member state has formally deposited a written instrument of withdrawal from the Rome Statute with the UN Secretary‑General, and that deposit is either recorded by the United Nations (for example the United Nations Treaty Collection or the UN press office) or reported by two or more independent reputable news outlets. A public announcement of intent, a parliamentary vote, or statements about considering withdrawal do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes66%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official depository of the United Nations treaties records a formal withdrawal from the Rome Statute by Naoero (Nauru), notified on September 23, 2026, which is before the deadline of September 30, 2026. The determining source is the United Nations Treaty Register — Rome Statute. It indicates the notification date, the expected effective date, and the depository notification number.
Source: treaties.un.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 66%
- Predictions made
- 418
- Credits staked
- 15,368
- Comments
- 6
- Opened
- Sep 12, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 2, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- treaties.un.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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