Will any UN member state formally withdraw from the Rome Statute?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 30, 2026, any UN member state has formally deposited a written instrument of withdrawal from the Rome Statute with the UN Secretary‑General, and that deposit is either recorded by the United Nations (for example the United Nations Treaty Collection or the UN press office) or reported by two or more independent reputable news outlets. A public announcement of intent, a parliamentary vote, or statements about considering withdrawal do not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 44 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

40%

Predictions made

44

Credits staked

1,360

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 12, 2026

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

apnews.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 40% and NO 60%, based on 44 predictions and 1.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against apnews.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any UN member state formally withdraw from the Rome Statute?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any UN member state formally withdraw from the Rome Statute?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.