Will the 5 November 2026 hoax bomb threats be publicly attributed to Iran?

🤖 Context

YES if the UK government issues an explicit on-the-record public statement attributing the 5 November 2026 hoax bomb threats affecting European airlines and airports to Iran, otherwise NO. • Only statements issued from November 5, 2026 count. • Statements issued no later than 21:46 on November 12, 2026 (inclusive) count. • The statement must explicitly use the word "Iran" or "Iranian", refer to the "Iranian state", or name a clearly "Iran-linked" actor. Vague references to a "foreign actor" do not count. • Source: UK government. Reporting by two or more independent reputable news organizations (for example BBC, Reuters, AP, The Guardian, Financial Times) is also accepted as evidence.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 16%, based on 263 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

16%

Predictions made

263

Credits staked

7,693

Comments

5

Opened

Nov 5, 2026

Closes

Nov 12, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 13, 2026

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 12, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 13, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 16% and NO 84%, based on 263 predictions and 7.7K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the 5 November 2026 hoax bomb threats be publicly attributed to Iran?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the 5 November 2026 hoax bomb threats be publicly attributed to Iran?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.