🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 1
Will the Falcon 9 for Transporter‑18 clear the pad and lift off from Vandenberg on October 1?
90%
Stable · last 24h
416 bets · 17.1K credits2
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ScienceOpened Aug 7 · Results Oct 1
Will Sophie Adenot perform at least one spacewalk from the ISS?
86%
Stable · last 24h
📊 308 bettors💎 8.1K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 1🤖 Context
The market pays yes if NASA or ESA mission logs, official EVA reports, or major news wires show Sophie Adenot exited the ISS airlock and performed an extravehicular activity at any time from September 1, 2026 through September 30, 2026 inclusive. NASA’s station blog and an ESA news release report that Sophie Adenot and Jessica Meir left the airlock and completed a spacewalk on September 1, 2026, during which they replaced a retroreflector and swapped an external camera. Because that EVA occurred within the market window, the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes86%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources in the supplied evidence explicitly report that Sophie Adenot exited the ISS airlock and performed a spacewalk on 2026-09-01. NASA’s station blog (2026-09-01) and ESA’s news item (“Third spacewalk completed for Sophie Adenot”) together with contemporaneous coverage from Space.com, Sky at Night Magazine and Agences-Spatiales unambiguously describe Adenot and Jessica Meir performing an EVA on 2026-09-01 (tasks included replacing a retroreflector and swapping an external camera). That date falls within the market window, so the condition is met.
Source: esa.intKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 86%
- Predictions made
- 308
- Credits staked
- 8,118
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Aug 7, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 31, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 1, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- esa.int, nasa.gov, space.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledRelated predictions
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