Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

69%
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26%
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YES if, on October 1, 2026, a legally binding national regulation from Spain's Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT) or the competent national authority is in force nationwide that requires all three of the following: wearing a protective helmet while operating an electric scooter, wearing a high‑visibility reflective vest in low‑visibility conditions, and that riders must be older than 15 years. The requirement must be shown by the regulation text published in the Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) or on the official DGT or Ministry of Transport websites, or by clear reporting to that effect by two or more independent reputable news outlets (for example EFE, RTVE, El País, El Mundo, ABC). If any one of the three requirements is not legally in force nationwide on that date, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 26%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the necessary legal steps, I doubt the new regulations will be in place by October 1st. It seems unlikely that all three mandates will be met in time.

69%
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34%
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56%
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15%
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62%
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41%
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