Will the Russian vessel seized by Norway be returned to Russian custody?

21%
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17%
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YES if, no later than September 9, 2026, the IAEA Board of Governors formally adopts (by vote or by declared consensus) a text that explicitly states Iran is to be reported or referred to the United Nations Security Council. Credible reporting of that adoption by two or more independent authoritative news outlets is sufficient to resolve YES, and an IAEA Board press release or official IAEA statement is preferred. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 17%, based on 54 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe IAEA's recent discussions don't suggest a firm consensus for action against Iran. Given the timeline, it's unlikely they will adopt a definitive text by the deadline—counting on NO here.

21%
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74%
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60%
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38%
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16%
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49%
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