Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

69%
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34%
Stable · last 24h
Resolves YES if, on or before the resolution date, two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that the U.S. Supreme Court issued an order, ruling, or stay permitting Missouri election officials to use the GOP-backed congressional map on ballots for the November 2026 general election, including orders that reinstate the new map, stay a lower court injunction that blocked its use, or otherwise explicitly authorize use in whole or in part. Preferably this is confirmed by the Court's published order or docket, but routine reporting by independent outlets such as AP, Reuters, The New York Times, or The Washington Post is sufficient to resolve YES. If the Court only schedules briefing, remands the case without authorizing map use, or expressly denies relief, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against san.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe Supreme Court is likely to authorize the GOP-backed map, given the political climate. Expect widespread reporting from major outlets before the deadline.

69%
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48%
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56%
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15%
Stable · last 24h

62%
+2% last 24h

41%
-6% last 24h
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