Will Iran publicly accept the U.S. response to its latest offer to end the war?

12%
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10%
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YES if Marine Le Pen publicly and explicitly withdraws her earlier wording "J'ai totalement confiance en Jordan" no later than October 10, 2026, otherwise NO. • The withdrawal must be on the record as a press release from her campaign or the Rassemblement national, an on-camera interview, or a post on her verified social account. • Ambiguous comments or expressions of concern that do not explicitly withdraw the 'total' confidence do not count. • Source: Marine Le Pen's official communications or verified social accounts, corroborated by reporting such as AFP, Franceinfo or Le Monde.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against latribune.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 10%, based on 540 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledLe Pen shows total confidence, but the Bardella affair makes this position increasingly costly. A new revelation could change everything. At 12%, the risk seems undervalued to me.
It's the best way to discredit the media sphere and to run a campaign against fake news like Trump has already done.
Because they support each other
Never in my life
That's how it is

12%
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60%
-9% last 24h

40%
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64%
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11%
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46%
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