Will Iran publicly accept the U.S. response to its latest offer to end the war?

12%
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61%
-31% last 24h
YES if the G7 publicly announces a coordinated release of petroleum (oil and/or diesel) from member countries' strategic reserves intended to increase supply to global markets between 8:30 AM UTC on October 4, 2026 and no later than October 11, 2026, otherwise NO. • A coordinated G7 announcement must be made via a G7 communique, a joint leaders' statement, or a clear majority of member governments acting jointly. • Separate unilateral releases by single G7 members, media reports that only say the G7 is considering a release, or programmes described only as loans or swaps do not qualify. • Source: credible reporting by two or more independent, authoritative news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 61%, based on 661 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settled
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40%
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64%
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