Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

67%
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42%
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YES if Leon Black appears (in person or remotely) and gives sworn testimony, defined as an on-the-record deposition in which he takes an oath, no later than September 20, 2026, before the U.S. House Oversight Committee. A published committee transcript or official committee statement showing the testimony was sworn, or credible reporting of the sworn deposition by two or more independent major news outlets (for example AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post), is sufficient to resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeframe and the scrutiny around his situation, it's highly likely Black will testify. The pressure is on him, and missing this deadline would raise serious questions.

67%
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36%
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60%
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14%
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61%
-2% last 24h

42%
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