Will Tropical Storm Moke make landfall on Hawaii, Maui, Oahu, Kauai, Molokai, or Lanai?

74%
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63%
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YES if, after the Falcon 9 liftoff for the USSF-385 mission from SLC‑4E at Vandenberg Space Force Base on September 26, 2026, the first-stage booster B1096 is reported to have completed a controlled landing aboard the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love'. NO if the booster does not land on that droneship or if no credible reporting confirms a landing aboard it. Resolution will rely on SpaceX’s official post-launch statement or on consistent reporting from reputable outlets such as Spaceflight Now, Reuters, or U.S. Space Force communications. If official sources identify the recovered booster by tail number as B1096 that identification decides, and if the tail number is not explicitly stated the resolver may accept consistent reporting from multiple reputable outlets identifying the booster as B1096.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 12 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's not him who is cheating, it's another booster, so no chance 😂 it's free
Yes
The Falcon 9's B1096 booster will likely land on the droneship, given SpaceX's strong track record in recovery. Assuming no major mishaps, expect a successful landing.

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76%
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65%
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69%
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38%
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31%
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