Will Sophie Adenot do a fourth spacewalk?

🤖 Context

YES if NASA, ESA, or ISS mission logs or official NASA/ESA/ISS press releases report that Sophie Adenot completed at least one extravehicular activity (EVA) after the third EVA described in Numerama's September 2, 2026 article, and that this EVA was completed no later than September 30, 2026. Evidence corroborated by at least two independent major news agencies is also acceptable. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 33 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

33

Credits staked

1,049

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 8, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 33 predictions and 1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot do a fourth spacewalk?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot do a fourth spacewalk?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.