ScienceOpened Jun 6 · Results Oct 1

Will ESA–CAS SMILE begin its first scientific data collection by October 1, 2026?

68%

Stable · last 24h

📊 27 bettors💎 250 at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Oct 1

🤖 Context

The market resolves yes if the SMILE mission began official scientific data collection, beyond commissioning, by 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2026. ESA announced the commissioning period had ended and declared the spacecraft ready for science on 23 September 2026, and ESA plus multiple independent news outlets reported that SMILE released its first scientific images and entered regular science operations on 30 September 2026. Those facts are before the 00:00 UTC October 1 deadline, so the outcome is yes.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

68%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 68% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: ESA communications state the commissioning period ended (declared ready for science) on 2026-09-23, and ESA’s 'Science begins for SMILE' page plus multiple independent news outlets (TechTimes, Xinhua/MacauBusiness, BastillePost) report that SMILE released its first scientific images/data and entered regular science operations on 2026-09-30. Those independent, same-day reports unambiguously corroborate that the mission had begun official scientific data collection beyond commissioning by 00:00 UTC on 2026-10-01.

Source: esa.int