Will the United States carry out a kinetic strike inside Iran?

57%
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33%
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YES if the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin holds a vote between November 11, 2026 and no later than December 11, 2026 and elects a Governing Mayor who is a member of Die Linke. Otherwise NO. • Only votes on or after November 11, 2026 count. • The result must be published in the Abgeordnetenhaus official minutes naming the elected person and party, or explicitly reported by at least two independent authoritative news outlets (for example dpa, Tagesschau, RBB). • Source: Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin official minutes or at least two independent authoritative news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current political landscape in Berlin, it's unlikely that Die Linke will elect a mayor in this timeframe. The dynamics are against them.

57%
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31%
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33%
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50%
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53%
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10%
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