Poll: Le Pen above 34% in first-round polls on November 26?

🤖 Context

YES if Marine Le Pen's first-round polling average is strictly above 34.0% on 26 November 2026, otherwise NO. • The average is computed from first-round voting-intention polls listed on the English Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election" as it appeared on 26 November 2026 at 18:00 Paris time (UTC+01:00). • Each polling firm's most recent poll whose fieldwork ended between 27 October 2026 and 26 November 2026 inclusive counts once. • Within each poll, Le Pen's score is the mean of every scenario that tests her. The polling average is the mean of those per-poll scores rounded to one decimal using standard arithmetic rounding (round half up). • A rounded average equal to 34.0% does not satisfy "above 34%". • If that exact Wikipedia revision cannot be retrieved, the resolver should compute the same average from the poll reports published by the pollsters named on that page using the same fieldwork-date window and rounding rule. • Source: English Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election" as it appeared on 26 November 2026 at 18:00 Paris time (UTC+01:00).

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Nov 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 67%, based on 315 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

67%

Predictions made

315

Credits staked

13,210

Comments

8

Opened

Nov 12, 2026

Closes

Nov 26, 2026

Expected resolution

Nov 26, 2026

Resolution source

en.wikipedia.org

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Nov 26, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Nov 26, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 67% and NO 33%, based on 315 predictions and 13.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against en.wikipedia.org once the outcome is known.

Is “Poll: Le Pen above 34% in first-round polls on November 26?” real-money betting?

No. “Poll: Le Pen above 34% in first-round polls on November 26?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.