📺Kalshi: Trade the World Cup

Open questions7

🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 31

Will Gemini be the top AI on Oct 31?

58%

-1% last 24h

Yes 58%No 42%

373 bets · 15.8K credits7

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 29

Will OpenAI's Vercel AI Gateway spend share across top labs be above 15.7% on Oct 28?

33%

-7% last 24h

Yes 33%No 67%

222 bets · 10.7K credits1

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 29

Will Google Vercel's share of AI Gateway requests among the top labs on Oct 28 be above 11.9%?

36%

-3% last 24h

Yes 36%No 64%

199 bets · 8.2K credits2

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 29

Will the open-weight share of Open vs. Closed token volume be above 71.4% on Oct 28?

42%

-2% last 24h

Yes 42%No 58%

194 bets · 8.7K credits2

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🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 29

Will Anthropic Vercel's share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs be above 32.9% on Oct 28?

84%

+3% last 24h

Yes 84%No 16%

131 bets · 3.5K credits2

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How it turned out35

• Will Shintaro Mochizuki win the Round of 16 match against Chan?

  The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.

  Aug 4
  Yes
• Will 'Kalshi: Trade the World Cup' reach #1 on the US App Store's Top Free Apps chart by July 31, 2026?

  The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Aug 1
  No
• Will claude-opus-5-high be the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET on the LM Arena 'Remove Style Control' leaderboard?

  The crowd was 53% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Jul 31
  No
• Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on July 31?

  The crowd was 63% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Jul 31
  No
• Will Claude be the #1 model on LM Arena's 'Code' Webdev leaderboard at 10:00 AM ET on July 27, 2026?

  The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.

  Jul 27
  No

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