🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Sep 7
Will OpenAI's market share be above 20%?
38%
-45% last 24h
1102 bets · 31.4K credits2
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TechOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 27
Will Claude be the #1 model on LM Arena's 'Code' Webdev leaderboard at 10:00 AM ET on July 27, 2026?
39%
Stable · last 24h
📊 342 bettors💎 10.9K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if Kalshi's market KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26JUL27-CLAU is marked 'finalized' on Kalshi.com with an official YES, otherwise NO. Kalshi determines that by whether 'Claude' is listed as the #1 model on LM Arena's 'Code' Webdev leaderboard at 10:00 AM ET on July 27, 2026, using LM Arena's official tie breaking methodology, if none exists tied entities share the top rank and each tied contract resolves to $1/(number tied) rounded down. If Kalshi shows a non final status this contract remains unresolved until Kalshi reports a finalized YES or NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No39%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 61% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: The market resolves YES only if Kalshi's ticker KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26JUL27-CLAU is marked 'finalized' on Kalshi.com with an official YES; Kalshi determines that by whether 'Claude' is listed #1 on the LM Arena 'Code' Webdev leaderboard at 10:00 AM ET on 2026-07-27 (with LM Arena tie-breaking applied). Target instant/window: 2026-07-27 at 10:00 AM ET. Observed data (from supplied Kalshi ticker): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: The rule requires an official YES to resolve YES; the supplied authoritative Kalshi observation is an official NO. Therefore the resolved outcome is NO.
Source: kalshi.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 39%
- Predictions made
- 342
- Credits staked
- 10,922
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 23, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 27, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- kalshi.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
lol, there's no way claude makes it as number 1. just too many variables to mess it up! 🤷♂️
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