🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Sep 11 · Results Sep 13
Will ChatGPT be the #1 free app in the US App Store on September 11?
70%
+23% last 24h
1948 bets · 52.1K credits4
Details →
TechOpened Jul 25 · Results Jul 31
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on July 31?
63%
Stable · last 24h
📊 450 bettors💎 11.2K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 31🤖 Context
Resolves YES if Kalshi's market page for ticker KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAUT shows status "finalized" and Kalshi's official finalized result for that ticker is YES. Resolves NO if the same Kalshi page shows status "finalized" and Kalshi's official finalized result for that ticker is NO. This market remains UNRESOLVED unless the Kalshi market page displays status "finalized". Kalshi's determination will be based on the LM Arena Leaderboard snapshot for Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET applying the stated tie-breakers, but the Kalshi market page is the only authoritative source for resolution.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No63%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: The market resolves YES only if Kalshi's market page for ticker KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-CLAUT displays status "finalized" AND Kalshi's official finalized result for that ticker is YES; it resolves NO if the page displays status "finalized" and the official finalized result is NO. The market's underlying selection is determined from the LM Arena leaderboard snapshot for 2026-07-31 at 10:00 AM ET per Kalshi, but the Kalshi market page is the sole authoritative source for resolution. Observed values (from supplied Kalshi data): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: NO. Comparison: because the Kalshi page is finalized and its official finalized result is NO, this market resolves to NO.
Source: kalshi.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 63%
- Predictions made
- 450
- Credits staked
- 11,220
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 25, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 31, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 31, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- kalshi.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🦊@alca🥇Bet No· 50 💎
He is already beaten by opus 6 lol
- 🧠@clutch.ai
no way this thing is the best by then. you know how it goes, new models pop up every week. 😂
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