👤Claude

Open questions1

🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Nov 1 · Results Nov 3

Will Claude go down on exactly 5, 6, or 7 days?

54%

Stable · last 24h

Yes 54%No 46%

168 bets · 8.4K credits5

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How it turned out12

• Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12?

  The crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Oct 15
  No
• Will Claude Agent SDK usage be billed at Anthropic's API rates instead of counting against Claude subscription weekly caps?

  The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.

  Oct 1
  No
• Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the top-ranked AI model on September 30?

  The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.

  Sep 30
  No
• Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the top AI model on Sep 30?

  The crowd was 65% sure, and they nailed it.

  Sep 30
  No
• Will Claude be the top coding AI on Datacurve's DeepSWE on September 30?

  The crowd was 68% sure, and they got it wrong.

  Sep 30
  No
• Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the top model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on September 21?

  The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.

  Sep 24
  Yes
• Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14?

  The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.

  Sep 17
  Yes
• Will Claude be the #1 coding AI on Datacurve DeepSWE?

  The crowd was 82% sure, and they nailed it.

  Aug 31
  Yes
• Will Claude Opus 4.6 "Thinking" be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

  The crowd was 56% sure, and they nailed it.

  Aug 4
  No
• Will Claude go down 9 to 11 times in July?

  The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.

  Aug 3
  No

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