📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 2
Will the Notfallreform be passed in the Bundestag?
42%
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Live prediction markets about Bundestag. Back YES or NO with credits, watch the odds move in real time, and see how often the crowd gets it right.
60%
crowd accuracy
3/5
right calls
10
open questions
Biggest miss
Will any CDU/CSU MP publicly say they'll vote against or abstain from the government's tax reform, or be recorded voting no or abstaining?
NoThe crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.
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Will the Notfallreform be passed in the Bundestag?
The crowd's YES odds since Oct 15
42%
Yes
Open questions10
📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 2
Will a federal law ban municipalities and German states from expropriating residential housing?
20%
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Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Dec 31 · Results Jan 3
Will a draft law submitted to the Bundestag require documented counselling, limit assisted suicide to licensed physicians, and create licences for organisations?
69%
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📍Politics·NationalCloses Oct 31
Will the Bundestag plenary adopt a motion asking the Federal Constitutional Court to examine whether the AfD is unconstitutional?
48%
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401 bets · 7.3K credits1
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 27 · Results Nov 28
Will the Bundestag adopt the 2027 federal budget law in plenary?
68%
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401 bets · 7.6K credits1
Details →- Will Germany allow the Bundeswehr to shoot at drones when helping police in German airspace?Closes Dec 30 · Results Jan 3401 predictions81%Yes
- Will the "Startchancen- und Qualitätsentwicklungsgesetz" be adopted in the Bundestag?Closes Dec 31 · Results Jan 10 predictions46%Yes
- Will the childless surcharge in Germany's statutory long-term care insurance be raised to 0.9%?Closes Jan 31 · Results Feb 10 predictions67%Yes
- Will the Bundestag reintroduce a binding 'Bedarfswehrpflicht' (binding military conscription)?Closes Mar 31 · Results Apr 10 predictions29%Yes
- Will a government bill based on Stefanie Hubig's draft be approved and sent to the Bundestag for a first reading?Closes Mar 31 · Results Apr 10 predictions61%Yes
How it turned out5
- Will all members of a single Bundestag parliamentary group be excluded from a Bundestag plenary session?No
The crowd was 56% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 14 - Will the German government or a Bundestag group publicly file or announce a 'Verbotsverfahren' (party‑ban) against the AfD?No
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
Oct 6 - Will any CDU/CSU MP publicly say they'll vote against or abstain from the government's tax reform, or be recorded voting no or abstaining?No
The crowd was 62% sure, and they got it wrong.
Oct 2 - Will a law pass that sets at least a 5-year minimum prison sentence for using K.O.-tropfen?No
The crowd was 58% sure, and they nailed it.
Sep 25 - Will the 'Tankrabatt' bill pass the Bundestag and not be blocked by the Bundesrat?Yes
The crowd was 61% sure, and they got it wrong.
Sep 25