Will a public protest or march take place in Paris on October 31?

95%
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46%
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YES if the Bundestag records adoption of the "Startchancen- und Qualitätsentwicklungsgesetz" in its plenary minutes, or if two or more independent national news outlets explicitly report that the Bundestag adopted the bill in a final plenary vote, between 07:01:20 UTC on October 9, 2026 and no later than December 31, 2026. Otherwise NO. • A final affirmative plenary vote adopting the bill is required. Committee approvals, first readings, or debates do not count. • Source: Bundestag plenary minutes or Bundestag press release, or two or more independent national news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 46%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe Bundestag's agenda seems set for this. With over two months left, it’s likely we’ll see at least one report confirming the bill's adoption. Expect movement soon.

95%
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74%
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94%
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35%
+4% last 24h

40%
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36%
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