Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

52%
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33%
Stable · last 24h
YES if Vanessa Emde is suspended, expelled, or formally removed from membership of the Die Linke parliamentary group in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus, or is stripped of her official parliamentary posts, on or after 07:16 UTC on October 18, 2026 and no later than November 30, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Only formal, on-the-record acts count: an official Die Linke Berlin parliamentary group press release or minutes/records of the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus showing the action. • Reports by Tagesschau, rbb, or Berlin press that quote such an official Fraktion press release or Abgeordnetenhaus record are acceptable evidence. Mere verbal distancing, internal admonitions without a formal Fraktion decision, or media speculation do not count. • Source: Fraktion Die Linke Berlin; Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus minutes/records; Tagesschau, rbb, or Berlin press quoting those official documents.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe likelihood of a formal decision on Emde's membership seems low right now, given the current political climate. I'll bet on her staying put until at least the end of November.

52%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

51%
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10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
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