🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?
37%
Stable · last 24h
200 bets · 3.9K credits1
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 24 · Results Aug 7
Will the U.S. open a trade investigation into EU fines on Google or Apple by August 7, 2026?
22%
Stable · last 24h
📊 9 bettors💎 126 at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 7🤖 Context
YES if, on or before 5:00 PM Eastern on August 7, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative posts a formal notice of initiation on its official website or the U.S. Federal Register publishes a notice of initiation explicitly stating the U.S. is opening a formal trade investigation into EU enforcement actions, fines, or penalties directed at Google LLC or Apple Inc. Otherwise NO. Public remarks by the President or the White House that do not include an official USTR or Federal Register initiation notice do not satisfy this market.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes22%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 78% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible news outlets (BBC, Euronews, CNBC — among others provided) reported on 2026-07-24 that President Trump announced the U.S. would "immediately" initiate a Section 301 trade investigation of the European Union in response to recent EU fines. The coverage explicitly links the announced probe to EU enforcement actions/fines (citing the €890m Google penalty) and names Apple among U.S. firms mentioned. Those independent contemporaneous reports establish that the United States opened a trade investigation explicitly framed as investigating EU enforcement actions/fines directed at Google and Apple.
Source: bbc.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 22%
- Predictions made
- 9
- Credits staked
- 126
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 27, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 7, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- bbc.com, euronews.com, cnbc.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 8 💎
nah, can’t see the U.S. poking the EU bear over this. too busy with other drama 😂
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