Will Russia and Ukraine both publicly accept a bilateral energy ceasefire that suspends attacks on energy infrastructure?

22%
-3% last 24h

35%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than October 26, 2026, two or more independent international news organisations credibly report that Iran and Saudi Arabia have publicly announced that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis (Yemen) will hold direct talks and that Iran is explicitly named as the mediator, otherwise NO. • "Publicly announced" means on‑the‑record statements by both governments (Iran and Saudi Arabia) or a joint communiqué. • An acceptance of mediation that does not explicitly name Iran as the mediator does not count. • Source: two or more independent international news organisations.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 27, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 35%, based on 463 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the ongoing tensions, a formal announcement naming Iran as mediator seems unlikely within the next two weeks. International dynamics are too complex right now.

22%
-3% last 24h

70%
+3% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

64%
Stable · last 24h

46%
-3% last 24h

45%
-3% last 24h
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