Will the man detained be formally charged with plotting to assassinate Prime Minister Donald Tusk?

🤖 Context

YES if Polish police or a public prosecutor publicly announce that formal criminal charges were filed against the detained man and those charges explicitly allege planning, plotting, conspiring, or attempting to assassinate Prime Minister Donald Tusk, no later than October 18, 2026. Otherwise NO. • Only formal criminal charges that explicitly allege planning, plotting, conspiring, or attempting to assassinate the prime minister count. Reports that the suspect is "under investigation" or that unspecified offences were charged do not count. • Credible reporting by two or more independent authoritative news outlets is sufficient to resolve YES. An official statement from Polish authorities also counts. • Source: Polish police or public prosecutor statements, or reporting by independent news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 69%, based on 616 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

69%

Predictions made

616

Credits staked

21,861

Comments

9

Opened

Oct 11, 2026

Closes

Oct 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 19, 2026

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 19, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 69% and NO 31%, based on 616 predictions and 21.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the man detained be formally charged with plotting to assassinate Prime Minister Donald Tusk?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the man detained be formally charged with plotting to assassinate Prime Minister Donald Tusk?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.