Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
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67%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the SPD's official congress results from the Bundesparteitag held 16 and 17 January 2027 in Bremen show the party elected exactly two people as the federal leadership (a formally constituted two-person 'Doppelspitze'), otherwise NO. • The result must be reported by at least two independent German news outlets and appear in the SPD's published congress results. • If the congress is postponed or rescheduled, the market resolves on the official result once it is published. If the congress is cancelled with no new date, the market resolves NO. • Source: tagesschau.de.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Jan 15, 2027, and the market is expected to resolve on Jan 17, 2027. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 67%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current dynamics within the SPD, a double leadership structure seems plausible. Look for the party to embrace this approach at the congress in January.

53%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

51%
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10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
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