Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

52%
-2% last 24h

20%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the SPD, Die Linke and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern publicly sign and publish (i.e., sign and release the text of) a coalition agreement forming a 'red‑red‑green' state government no later than November 15, 2026, otherwise NO. • The signing and publication must show that all three parties have signed and that the coalition text is released, not just a statement of principle. • Occurrences before October 10, 2026 at 19:00:50 UTC do not count. • Source: official party press releases, the Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern state government, or reporting by two or more independent German news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against ndr.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 20%, based on 402 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just over a month to go and the deadline approaching, it's unlikely these parties will finalize and publish a coalition agreement. Too many hurdles remain.

52%
-2% last 24h

33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

51%
-2% last 24h

10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
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