🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 9 · Results Oct 10
Will Iran publicly accept the U.S. response to its latest offer to end the war?
12%
Stable · last 24h
502 bets · 18K credits7
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PoliticsOpened Sep 14 · Results Oct 1
Will the Liberal Party of Canada hold at least 172 seats in the House of Commons on October 1?
62%
Stable · last 24h
📊 506 bettors💎 14.1K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 1🤖 Context
YES if the official House of Commons party standings published by the Clerk of the House of Commons or Parliament of Canada show the Liberal Party of Canada holding 172 or more seats at 12:00 PM Eastern Time (UTC−4) on October 1, 2026. Vacancies count as seats not held by any party. MP defections or changes of affiliation are counted as recorded by the Clerk, and mainstream reporting may be used as supplementary evidence.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes62%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Yes. According to the seating chart of the 45th legislature, the Liberal Party currently has 173 MPs in the House of Commons, which is one more than the threshold of 172. This comes from the three Liberal victories in the by-elections on August 31, 2026 (Braeden Caley, Daniel Gobeil, and Tanveer Shahnawaz). Since then, the only other resignation recorded is that of Conservative Larry Brock on September 18, which does not change the Liberal total.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 62%
- Predictions made
- 506
- Credits staked
- 14,105
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 14, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 2, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🐷
Yes
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
The Liberal Party is unlikely to hold 172 seats, given the current trends and a tightening political landscape. Expect changes before the deadline.
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