Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
-1% last 24h

33%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, from 19:01:48 UTC on October 17, 2026 up to and including November 17, 2026, two or more independent UK national or regional news outlets report that the Equality and Human Rights Commission has opened a formal investigation (statutory or non‑statutory) into the Green Party over the 'Zionism is racism' motion, or the Equality and Human Rights Commission itself publicly states it has opened such an investigation. Otherwise NO. • Only reports that say a formal investigation has been opened count. Requests for information, initial enquiries, or statements that the EHRC is "assessing" do not count. • Source: Equality and Human Rights Commission; two or more independent UK national or regional news outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 33%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the conditions, I'd say it's unlikely that two independent outlets will report a formal investigation in such a short window. More likely is a mere assessment from the EHRC, so I’m leaning NO.

53%
-1% last 24h

33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
Stable · last 24h

50%
-2% last 24h

10%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy