Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

53%
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5%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the CGT national leadership publicly withdraws its call for a nationwide day of strike and demonstrations on November 17; otherwise NO. • The CGT must issue an explicit on-the-record statement no later than 00:00 (midnight) on 17 November 2026 Central European Time (CET) (a press release on the CGT's official website, a formal CGT press conference, or an on-the-record interview by the national secretary or equivalent), or two or more independent national news outlets must report the cancellation and attribute it to such an on-the-record CGT statement. • Partial changes (for example cancelling demonstrations but keeping a strike call) do not count unless the CGT explicitly withdraws the entire 17 November action. Postponing the action only counts as cancelling 17 November if the CGT explicitly withdraws that date. • Source: CGT national leadership or two or more independent national news outlets (e.g., AFP, Le Monde, Franceinfo, BFMTV).
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bfmtv.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 5%, based on 434 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settled
53%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

53%
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51%
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10%
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43%
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