Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 15YES if no later than 8:00 AM CEST on October 15, 2026, official S‑Bahn Berlin or Deutsche Bahn service bulletins or a Berlin Senate press release show that scheduled S‑Bahn passenger services between the stations Berlin Friedrichstraße and Berlin‑Tiergarten are suspended (for example an official "line closed" notice, a published timetable showing replacement buses, or an equivalent service suspension bulletin). Otherwise NO. Mainstream outlets such as rbb, tagesschau or dpa may be used as secondary confirmation.
How markets are built and settled33%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: At 08:00 CEST on October 15, 2026, the official statements from S-Bahn Berlin and Deutsche Bahn confirm that the section between the Berlin Friedrichstraße and Berlin-Tiergarten stations is not experiencing any suspension of passenger service.
Source: sbahn.berlinSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
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