Will the US carry out additional military strikes in or directly over the Strait of Hormuz?

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YES if, at 23:59:59 Central European Time on 30 November 2026, Manuela Schwesig is recorded as holding the office of Minister‑President of Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern according to two or more independent German national news outlets or the official Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern state government or Landtag records. Temporary absences or leaves of absence count as holding the office. A formal resignation, removal, or a successor formally holding the office by that instant makes the market resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Nov 29, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 83%, based on 402 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledSchwesig's position seems secure for now, especially with the upcoming vote. Unless something unexpected happens, I expect she'll still be in office come November.

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53%
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50%
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43%
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